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Will Inflation Stay Down?

July 12, 2023

The U.S. CPI was +0.2% m/m (3.0% y/y), a notable slowdown, but the core (ex food & energy) CPI was +0.2% m/m (4.8% y/y) in June.

Price inflation peaked in mid-2022, though “sticky” core components matter. While cracks are appearing, the U.S. labor market does not appear to have rolled over enough to remove concerns about wage inflation yet – this still matters for CPI services inflation.

Bottom line: the door remains open for another Fed rate hike in July. Future core inflation readings will likely help determine the move in Sept.

U.S. Core CPI M/M %

U.S. HOUSING HOLDING UP "STICKY" U.S. INFLATION NOW

MORE TIMELY RENT DATA ALREADY ROLLING OVER CONSIDERABLY

THE U.S. ECONOMY RECOVERED, BUT IN AN ODD WAY

Sources: Don Rissmiller, Strategas

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Too many people put off buying a home because they think they need a big down payment. We can help. Our FHA loans are perfect for homebuyers with limited savings and easier to qualify for than you might think.

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We do business in accordance with the Federal Fair Housing Law and the Equal Credit Opportunity Act. This letter is for informational purposes only and is not an advertisement to commit to lend or extend customer credit as defined by section 12 CFR 1026.2 Regulation Z. Restrictions and conditions may apply. Terms, rates, data, programs, information, and conditions are subject to change without notice, and may not be available in all areas. Licensed by the Department of Financial Protection and Innovation under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, 2315626, Licensed by the Department of Business oversight under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act, 2111866 or Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the California Finance Lenders Law, 2111866. Subject to Borrower Approval.