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Housing & Autos Preventing a U.S. Recession Now
July 19, 2023
Leading indicators (eg, the yield curve) have been flashing red for a while, and some U.S. sectors have contracted (eg, mfg PMIs < 50, industrial production falling -0.5% m/m in June).
But the U.S. economy overall has been resilient. Retail sales rose +0.2% m/m in June with the retail control group up +0.6%. Tracking estimates for 2Q real GDP in the U.S. are running at roughly +2% q/q A.R.
Bottom line: Recessions are contagion events, and weakness has not yet spread broadly in the U.S. After a choppy 2022, key sectors including housing & autos have shown signs of life in recent months. A recession probably won’t start until those two parts of the economy crack again.
Sources: Don Rissmiller, Strategas
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Bank Statement Loans
Open the Door to More Self-Employed Clients
Small business owners. Entrepreneurs. Even real estate agents. While self-employed buyers go by many names, they can all find gathering income docs or tax transcripts to be a real hassle. Fortunately, we can offer your clients Bank Statement Loans, allowing them to provide bank statements to qualify for loans up to $3M, with LTVs up to 90% and no MI required. Let’s open the door to more business together.
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